Kirkland Real Estate Sales Devouring Active Listing Inventory of Homes For Sale

Home sales in Kirkland are continuing to outpace past years, as the number of sold homes are nearly reaching the number of active listing each month.  This trend of decreasing real estate inventory has reached a critical point in Kirkland, where home sellers are often able to sell within one week, and with multiple offers, as buyer demand seems to continue to grow with barely enough new listing support to keep up.

Kirkland saw 154 home sales in April, a 14 percent increase over March.  Even more strikingly, April's sales were 31 percent higher than at the same time last year, when just 118 homes were sold.

Kirkland Active Real Estate Listings vs. Sold Homes, Monthly, 2010-Present

While we are still seeing a healthy number of new listings coming on the market each month in Kirkland, the rate of sales is eating up that inventory just as fast as it's listed.  The majority of listings are selling within the first two weeks on the market.  Even with new active listings matching the rates of 2011 and 2012, the short marketing time of these new listings has dropped the monthly inventory in Kirkland down to about 1.5 months.  A healthy market is usually said to contain 5 or 6 months' inventory, balancing buyers and sellers.

Clearly this signals a strong shift to a sellers' market in Kirkland, but the lack of inventory actually takes it to an extremely out-of-balance market.  As total home sales continue to inch closer to total active listings, we reach a point where nearly the entire real estate inventory in Kirkland is turning over every month.  

This isn't to say that an "extreme" seller's market is a bad thing for Kirkland.  We've seen some extremely negative times in the local real estate market in recent years.  This lack of inventory is causing what most homeowners have been hoping for:  significant home price increases.  Home prices have risen in double digit percentages across the Eastside and Seattle in the past year.  Projections for this year are the same.  

As interest rates continue to affect home buyers' buying power in a very significant way, we're likely to see fierce competition for homes as we continue through 2013.  Kirkland homeowners would be wise to take this into account when analyzing whether or not this is the time to list their homes for sale.  Mortgage interest rates, and their effect on buyers' ability to purchase a home in a higher price range, may be the most significant factor in how long this upward trend lasts.

See today's new listings in Kirkland.

See today's new listings Seattle.

© SeattleHome.com: - Sam DeBord, Managing Broker, Realtor
Board of Directors, Washington Association of Realtors
Coldwell Banker Seattle: Coldwell Banker Danforth & Associates
Twitter | Facebook | LinkedIn | Google + | Sam (at) SeattleHome.com

Source:  NWMLS Stats - The Northwest Multiple Listing Service did not compile or publish this information.

Bellevue Pending Real Estate Sales Hit 5-Yr High

Pending sales of homes in Bellevue hit a five year high in April, creating a scenario where we're likely to see record-breaking real estate sales throughout 2013.  Bellevue had 233 house and condo listings go under contract during the month of April, up from 184 in the previous month.  The 26 percent increase is a larger than typical boost for this time of the year, although real estate sales naturally rise through late spring and summer.

The total number of pending sales is a 23 percent increase over the same month last year, when just 189 home purchase contracts were signed in Bellevue.  Home sales over the past five years have typically peaked between May and August, so the early pace of April sales points to a summer that is likely to continue to outpace years past.  

Inventory continues to be scarce in Bellevue, with one to two months of available properties, but the rate of new lsitings coming on the market seems to be keeping pace with the past few years.  As the amount of time on the market continues to decrease, on average, home buyers in Bellevue continue to use more aggressive strategies to acquire listings as soon as they come available.  

Sales volumes are up, median prices are rising, inventory continues to shrink, and homes in Bellevue are selling increasingly faster.  If it weren't for the 20 to 30 percent loss that most of our markets took in the past five or six years, you might be tempted to call this the start of a bubble.  In reality, the Bellevue market is still far from gaining back the losses since the peak of 2007.  

Today, we're just seeing a reaction to the over-correction that happened at the bottom of the pricing cycle.  The economy in Bellevue is thriving, and buyers are releasing pent-up demand.  Bellevue home prices will likely rise throughout 2013 if current economic conditions continue.

See today's new listings Seattle.

© SeattleHome.com: - Sam DeBord, Managing Broker, Realtor
Board of Directors, Washington Association of Realtors
Coldwell Banker Seattle: Coldwell Banker Danforth & Associates
Twitter | Facebook | LinkedIn | Google + | Sam (at) SeattleHome.com

Source:  NWMLS Stats - The Northwest Multiple Listing Service did not compile or publish this information.

Pending Seattle Real Estate Sales Rise 10.7%: Low Inventory Can't Squelch Buyer Demand

The relative lack of homes available for sale in the market in Seattle at any given time has not been able to quench home buyers' thirst to purchase a house.  While we're sitting at around 1.5 months of inventory right now, the lowest we've seen in years, the number of homes being sold is still increasing.

Pending residential home sales in Seattle rose 10.7 percent in April, after a March showing which had an even stronger 27 percent increase.  The 833 pending residential sales for April was the highest total we've seen in the past two years.

Pending Homes Sales in Seattle, Jan 2011-April 2013

As I stated previously, the number of new listings coming on the market in Seattle is actually the same as it was in previous years.  The speed with which those homes are selling has created the drop in total active listings during any one month.

We'd expect to see that lack of inventory to slow the total pending sales down somewhat, but instead we're seeing an decrease in marketing time.  Buyers have just decided that they'll purchase more quickly, instead of waiting for broader inventory.

At some point, those factors can't continue in their current directions.  We'll have to wait and see which bends first.

See today's new listings Seattle.

© SeattleHome.com: - Sam DeBord, Managing Broker, Realtor
Board of Directors, Washington Association of Realtors
Coldwell Banker Seattle: Coldwell Banker Danforth & Associates
Twitter | Facebook | LinkedIn | Google + | Sam (at) SeattleHome.com

Source:  NWMLS Stats - The Northwest Multiple Listing Service did not compile or publish this information.

America's Most Bike-Friendly Cities: Seattle #7

The folks at Walkscore are always dreaming up a new way to measure pedestrian friendliness in cities across the country.  Their latest effort is measuring a city's bike friendlienss, with a Bike Score.

The scoring system is based on the prevalence of bike lanes, hills, commute options, and the number of bicyclists in the area, among other things.  Some things, like a particularly hilly, difficult terrain (as in San Francisco) can be overcome with a very popular, social bike scene that makes the city a more attractive candidate for a bicycle enthusiast relocating to the area.  Ergo, San Francisco's spot at the top of the list.

Seattle came in at 7th place, a strong showing for a city that most would think discourages biking with its rainy weather.  People here just don't seem to care.  The availability of bike lanes, destinations, and other bikers overcome the slightly hilly terrain.  

Top 10 Most Bikeable Large U.S. Cities

1. Portland (Bike Score: 70.3)

2. San Francisco (Bike Score: 70.0)

3. Denver (Bike Score: 69.5)

4. Philadelphia (Bike Score: 68.4)

5. Boston (Bike Score: 67.8)

6. Washington D.C. (Bike Score: 65.3)

7. Seattle (Bike Score: 64.1)

8. Tucson (Bike Score: 64.1)

9. New York (Bike Score: 62.3)

10. Chicago (Bike Score: 61.5)

See today's new listings Seattle.

© SeattleHome.com: - Sam DeBord, Managing Broker, Realtor
Board of Directors, Washington Association of Realtors
Coldwell Banker Seattle: Coldwell Banker Danforth & Associates
Twitter | Facebook | LinkedIn | Google + | Sam (at) SeattleHome.com

Bellevue Real Estate Sales Nearly Swallow The Market

During fast-paced changes in a real estate market, we get to see statistics that look a bit strange sometimes.  The speed with which Bellevue homes are being sold this year has created some numbers that we haven't seen in a long time.

Homes are selling at a breakneck pace in Bellevue, and in the greater Seattle market.  Nearly half of all homes are sold within two weeks on the market.  While there are still plenty of new listings coming active each month, the number of recent sales, and their speed, nearly swallowed up the entire active inventory in recent months:

Bellevue Real Estate: Active Listings For Sale vs. Homes Sold, By Month

The graph above shows an interesting point at the beginning of 2013, which has only changed slightly throughout the year so far.  Home buyers had scooped up nearly every home on the market, and where the two lines meet, we saw a point where the market was eating up every home available, every month.

The trend line moving forward continues to show that we're barely keeping up with buyer demand.  Truly, we're not keeping up at all, as there are lots of home buyers eagerly waiting for the right home to be listed.  There is a lot of pent-up frustration and demand for more listings.  In terms of pure statistics, though, we're practically selling every home that comes on the market, every month.

The following graph shows just that.  Months of Inventory is a stat we use to show how long it would take to sell every home currently on the market, given how many homes are selling each month.  This is basically the Absorption Rate for the market, or how fast a buyer market can absorb the number of seller listings available.

As you can see, months of inventory in Bellevue has dropped to just one month, and has been under two for quite some time.

Bellevue Real Estate, Months of Inventory

In a healthy real estate market, we usually see 5-6 months of inventory.  That represents a balance of buyers to sellers.  The current market is nothing less than an extremely strong sellers' market.

The takeaway is that the market is clearly in need of more listings.  Sellers are beginning to respond, but not nearly quickly enough to keep up with buyer demand.  The lack of competitive listings is putting home sellers in a stronger negotiating position.  Buyers are willing to pay a premium to purchase a home quickly.

Sellers should also be considering home buyers' potential buying power with interest rates being so low today.  Waiting for prices to rise can benefit the seller in one way, but if interest rates rise from 4 percent to 5 percent, home buyers' buying power is diminished by up to 25%.  That significantly reduces the number of potential buyers who are able to purchase a home at a certain price.

Inventory is down, prices are headed up, and buyers are circling.  As some of the unique statistics we're seeing illustrate, we're in a quickly changing market, and  Bellevue real estate appears to be headed for a very strong 2013.

See today's new listings in Bellevue.

See today's new listings Seattle.

Source: NWMLS - The Northwest Multiple Listing Service did not compile or publish this information.

© SeattleHome.com: - Sam DeBord, Managing Broker, Realtor
Board of Directors, Washington Association of Realtors
Coldwell Banker Seattle: Coldwell Banker Danforth & Associates
Twitter | Facebook | LinkedIn | Google + | Sam (at) SeattleHome.com

Seattle's Monthly Real Estate Sales Are Creeping Up on Active Listings

It has been interesting to watch the number of active listings in the Seattle real estate market dwindle over the past couple of years.  We've talked a lot about what having only 1 or 2 month's inventory means for home buyers.  Though there are plenty of new listings coming on the market every week, they're just selling faster.

This visual gives a good idea of how tight our market is getting:

Active Listings vs. Total Sales, Seattle

The upper line represents the number of homes that were available on the MLS since January of 2011.  The lower line represents the number of homes sold each month.

As you can see, the number of sales is creeping up on the active listings.  The margin is so slim right now that there are only slightly more homes available each month than there are sales.  That means we have to replace at least 75 percent of the market with new listings, each month, or we won't be able to keep up with buyer demand.

It's a strange time in the Seattle real estate market.  Buyers are clamoring for listings.  Sellers are sort of listening, but not particularly motivated.  Remember all those times in your life that you thought back and wished you had done something more proactive when the timing was right?  Seattle home sellers, this is going to be one of those times.

Get your house on the market while the competition is fierce, the pickings are slim, and low interest rates allow a lot more buyers to afford your home.

See today's new listings in Bellevue and Seattle.

Source: NWMLS - The Northwest Multiple Listing Service did not compile or publish this information.

© SeattleHome.com: - Sam DeBord, Managing Broker, Realtor
Board of Directors, Washington Association of Realtors
Coldwell Banker Seattle: Coldwell Banker Danforth & Associates
Twitter | Facebook | LinkedIn | Google + | Sam (at) SeattleHome.com

Bellevue Homes: Plenty of New Listings, Short Time on Market

While many potential home buyers in Bellevue are feeling the squeeze of the fast-moving real estate market, it should be noted that there are plenty of new listings coming on the market every week.  In fact, there are just as many new listings this month as there were a year ago, and two years ago at this time.

New Listings On The Market, Bellevue, By Month

As the statistics from the NWMLS show, Bellevue peaks at about 190-200 new listings/month in the late spring, and hits bottom every December at around 50-60 listings/month.  There is a slight downward trend over the past three years, but it's fairly insignificant.  The takeaway for buyers is that there are a healthy number of new homes to visit every week.

The larger issue for many buyers is the total time on the market.  20 to 30 percent of all homes listed in Bellevue are being sold in the first week.  That creates a lower total of active inventory, even as the rate of new listings continues to keep pace with previous years.  There just aren't a lot of homes to visit that are 30, 60, or 90 day-old listings.  

Aggressive buyer tactics have become normal, and necessary, to buy a home in Bellevue this year.  Buyers who sit on the fence will continue to do so in most cases.  Those that are going to visit a property with their agent the first day on the market, instead of waiting for an open house, are the buyers who are writing offers and winning the bidding wars.

See today's new listings in Bellevue and Seattle.

Source: NWMLS - The Northwest Multiple Listing Service did not compile or publish this information.

© SeattleHome.com: - Sam DeBord, Managing Broker, Realtor
Board of Directors, Washington Association of Realtors
Coldwell Banker Seattle: Coldwell Banker Danforth & Associates
Twitter | Facebook | LinkedIn | Google + | Sam (at) SeattleHome.com

No Homes For Sale in Seattle? New Listings Equal 2012, 2011 Totals

Home buyers who are searching for a house or condo in Seattle often lament "There's nothing for sale."  It's a statement repeated by many agents as well.  Frankly, most of the reports we write about the scarcity of inventory exacerbate the notion that no new listings are coming on the market.

In reality, there are plenty of homes for sale every week.  There are just as many new homes coming on the market today as there were two years ago.  There are actually more than last year.

The number of new listings for sale seems to remain fairly constant.  In Seattle, we peak at around 900 new listings per month in Seattle in the early summer, and we hit bottom in December at around 300 listing per month.   So if there are just as many new listings available today as there were the last couple of years, why doesn't it feel that way?

The difference in today's market is how quickly homes sell.  One out of four homes in Seattle is sold within 7 days of listing.  The speed with which Seattle houses and condos are selling can frustrate a buyer who is moderately motivated to buy.  The casual weekend browser, or the open house visitor, is rarely moving quickly enough in this market to buy a home, as the aggressive buyers are writing offers and snatching them up as soon as they're listed.

This is what creates the "1 month of inventory" and "housing inventory drops again" headlines.  At any point in time, there may be just as many new listings coming on the market as in previous years.  They're selling so quickly, however, that the inventory of lagging, long-term marketed homes is significantly lower.

The takeaway for the frustrated home buyer should be that a change of mindset may be necessary.  When losing out on a home to another buyer, there will still be another listing tomorrow, as there was always in years past.  This year, though, it's a requirement that buyers have an aggressive home buying strategy.  Go visit the new listings the day they come on the market, and make a confident offer as soon as the decision has been made that this is the right home. 

See today's new listings in Seattle.

Source: NWMLS - The Northwest Multiple Listing Service did not compile or publish this information.

© SeattleHome.com: - Sam DeBord, Managing Broker, Realtor
Board of Directors, Washington Association of Realtors
Coldwell Banker Seattle: Coldwell Banker Danforth & Associates
Twitter | Facebook | LinkedIn | Google + | Sam (at) SeattleHome.com

Bellevue Home Prices Up 16% In 1 Year

The scarce inventory of Bellevue homes for sale is having a significant effect on the price of houses locally. Home prices in Bellevue have been up-and-down over the past year, but the median home price hit a peak this April.

The median sale price of a house in Bellevue for April was $660,000, up from a median of $569,000 one year ago.  That increase of 16 percent is one of the biggest we're seeing in the greater Seattle market.

While the overall trend isn't particularly striking, the seasonal effect should be noted.  We'll usually see a drop in sales and median prices over the winter, while those numbers spike in spring and summer.  We did see a bit of the drop in Bellevue over the winter, but it was slight.  In the meantime, the spring numbers mark what we've expected.

Sales have been brisk for around three months now, and those homes that went under contract as the market in Bellevue heated up are just coming to closing.  It's very likely that those homes in Bellevue that are under contract this month, will have even higher medians as they come to closing in the next month or two.

Bellevue Sold Homes, Median Sale Price

Month	Sale Price, Median
May 2012	$569,000
Jun 2012	$634,000
Jul 2012	$600,000
Aug 2012	$616,940
Sep 2012	$575,000
Oct 2012	$625,475
Nov 2012	$570,000
Dec 2012	$552,500
Jan 2013	$581,250
Feb 2013	$597,475
Mar 2013	$582,000
Apr 2013	$660,000

 

Source:  NWMLS database.  This information was not compiled or published by the Northwest Multiple Listing Services.

Sam DeBord: Managing Broker, Coldwell Banker Danforth of Greater Seattle
State Director, Washington Association of Realtors | Member, Seattle King County Realtors
© SeattleHome.com:  Greater Seattle's #1 Site For Homes | Every Listing From Every Company
Twitter | Facebook | LinkedIn | Google + | Sam (at) SeattleHome.com | 206.552.8820

All Time Low: Seattle Real Estate Inventory Drops to 1 Month

Tired of hearing about how little inventory is available in the Seattle real estate market?  Stop reading now.  It's getting more scarce.

Everyone in the industry was predicting that we'd get a spring bump in listings.  Sellers must be able to see that the market has turned around, and with little competition, they're in a perfect market to sell.  Then, this came along:

Months of Inventory in Seattle, March 2013:

	Months of Inventory
Month	2011	2012	2013
Jan	8	5	2
Feb	7	4	2
Mar	5	3	1
Apr	5	2
May	5	2
Jun	4	2
Jul	5	2
Aug	4	2
Sep	5	3
Oct	5	2
Nov	4	2
Dec	3	2

 

One month of inventory.  It's hard to even say it.  The number of homes for sale in Seattle are only enough to satisfy one month's worth of buyers.

The stats from the NWMLS don't lie.  Over 28,000 listings were included over the past 27 months to track inventory in Seattle.  The times where we see 5-7 months of inventory are actually a stable market, one where we see a fairly balanced market of sellers to buyers.  Three to four months of inventory signals a strong market for sellers.  One month is just unheard of.

There are plenty of reasons for the lack of inventory:  slowing mortgage defaults, judicial hurdles for foreclosures, and underwater home sellers.  Those reasons combined don't create a shortage this severe, however.

Many are surmising that home sellers see the market on its way up, and they may be waiting for prices to rise further.  This isn't an illogical decision, but it really only makes sense for a seller who is underwater or won't be buying another home.  Price increases on their current home will also affect the next home they plan to buy, and basically cancel each other out.

What the home seller who delays might miss out on, in the meantime, are the interest rates available today.  Selling in a year might net a higher price, but if the same person buys a new home at a 1% higher interest rate, they'll lose 25 percent of today's buying power.  In effect, their home would need to appreciate nearly 25 percent this year, while all other home prices remained flat, for them to profit in a rising interest rate market.

One month of supply.  Home sellers, if you haven't heard anything else that signalled the need for you to list your home, take those four words to heart.  We may not hear them again for a long, long time.

Source:  NWMLS database.  This information was not compiled or published by the Northwest Multiple Listing Services.

Sam DeBord: Managing Broker, Coldwell Banker Danforth of Greater Seattle
State Director, Washington Association of Realtors | Member, Seattle King County Realtors
© SeattleHome.com:  Greater Seattle's #1 Site For Homes | Every Listing From Every Company
Twitter | Facebook | LinkedIn | Google + | Sam (at) SeattleHome.com | 206.552.8820